It is useful when data is limited, as it helps provide a greater understanding of the problem and can help identify opportunities for preventing and detecting crimes. I assume you’re familiar with the Futures Cone, and its concept of ‘P’ futures (Possible, Plausible, Probable, and Preferred). As a situation develops over time, it can also be revisited to gain an insight as to how the strengths of key drivers change or how new drivers that have appeared affect potential future developments. Hand-held mobile technology—which would have seemed magical a hundred years ago—is now ubiquitous. In some situations, the analyst will have an idea of what may lead to particular scenarios occurring, however, it will help identify any warning indicators which the analyst may miss, intelligence gaps and early intervention points which could prevent an event from occurring. This first public mention of the “cone of plausibility” was by Charles Taylor in 1988 to illustrate the geopolitical scenarios he posed in Alternative World Scenarios for Strategic Planning (Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute). Pattern analysis (also known as crime pattern analysis) is a technique which allows the analyst to identify: There are many ways in which this type of analysis can be done and often maps, charts, graphs and tables are the best ways of displaying the patterns. The technique involves modelling the behaviour of an individual or group by trying to replicate their behaviour, viewpoints and intentions using critical thinking skills. Network analysis is usually managed through creating association charts. This technique ensures that all reasonable alternatives are identified and have competed against each other, rather than being looked at in isolation. However, there were other plausible, if unlikely, scenarios in the short term. So, it would have been easy for Boeing to identify the probable future and its preferable future, a scenario in which the company captured at an early stage the advantages to be gained from artificial intelligence, partly by moving quickly to clear regulatory hurdles against the use of AI or autonomy in commercial aircraft. This means that their customer is able to make policy decisions on what action to take if any of these indicators were to occur, which could then prevent an event from taking place. If you continue browsing the site, you agree to the use of cookies on this website. Beliefs and meanings held by individuals and groups are supported by, and embedded in, sociocultural institutions and processes. Analytical techniques include traditional and emerging techniques alongside thinking products that encourage the thought space to ensure effective analysis. The analyst should use a matrix to generate examples of how they think factors may affect one another. While the ‘probable future’ is only one of many possible futures, it is identifiably the one future that most people in an industry or firm tacitly and expressly agree is likely to happen. In our Nesta report Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: A modest defence of futurology we imagined it as a torch beam - taking heavily from Joseph Voros’ version of the cone originally developed by Clem Bezold. Analysts can identify strengths to be exploited or ways to improve on weaknesses that have been found. All content (excluding logos and photographs) is available for re-use under the Non-Commercial College Licence except where otherwise stated. Often, we are safe to assume that the near-term future will be somewhat different from the present but not drastically so. That notion is illustrated by the narrow end of the cone extending from the present to the future. For app developers planning future scenarios, it offers a valuable visual heuristic—though, as the illustration demonstrates, the more we attempt to prepare for the future, the higher the number of potential occurrences. 5 Reasons Your Organization Should Build Strategic Foresight Capacity, Is your Organization Prepared for an Uncertain Future? When carrying out red teaming, those involved need to develop first-person questions such as: This allows the analyst to develop a broader understanding of the subject without introducing their own biases into to analysis and can lead to them identifying new vulnerabilities which had not previously been considered. ACH involves identifying a list of potentially relevant pieces of information, then assessing their consistency with the hypotheses which have already been written. The second is the convergent stage whereby ideas are organised and, where appropriate, removed (discarded). A second assumption that Boeing was making in 2018 is that there will be fewer pilots in the future (because militaries are shrinking and fewer trained pilots will become available), and that artificial intelligence and autonomously piloted planes would be necessary to make up that shortfall. Once a hypothesis has been generated, it is important that it is tested to establish whether or not valid interpretations have been made. Although the ‘probable future’ is the likely course of events, planners who focus future preparations solely on this version of the future may be in for a shock when unexpected developments unfold. This technique should allow the analyst to provide their customer with the precursor events which will lead to something to occur. There are a variety of ways of doing this. But as the diagram depicts, the further into the future we seek to plan, the greater the number of possible events. Down the vertical axis, the analysts should list all relevant evidence being used to evaluate the hypotheses. This technique can be done in groups or alone. Structured brainstorming is a technique which is useful when generating hypotheses. In honor of World Future Day, which is celebrated annually worldwide on March 1st, we are sharing our favorite foresight terms all month long to raise awareness of Strategic Foresight. This process will identify the drivers which have the most impact and can inform the analysis as to where the biggest impact would be if certain drivers were removed. This is the realm of data and evidence. Structured brainstorming requires a facilitator to ensure that the session runs effectively – they should set the ground rules at the start of the session. While testing hypotheses, it is important to keep conducting KACs. Where ACH is to be done in large groups, the group should include managers and analysts to identify the hypotheses using structured brainstorming. See Quick Wins for Busy Analysts for more information (available via the Knowledge Hub Criminal Intelligence Analysis Community, which is an OFFICIAL online tool with access limited to registered PNN and GSi users). Each driver should be considered individually, which can result in several drivers having the same score. In 2018, Boeing had a very rosy outlook for itself and for commercial aviation in general. This part of the process should be done alone and will give the participant time to think about some hypotheses dependent on their ideas.